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This is obviously not the case. There are a variety of factors that impact inflation. We need to figure out what will be the greater way to obtain inflation after devaluation: Demand-pull or cost-push inflation. Given such a high rate of unemployment and excessive capacity throughout the market, it is improbable that inflation should come from the demand part.

Moreover, if the demand is relatively inelastic in the export sector-which seems to be the situation if we go through the level of exports to India before several years-the upsurge in the volume of exports will be rather small. Instead, a greater fall will take place in the total value of exports.

  • Communication Value
  • $500,000 in cash and short term securities
  • Large Coins
  • Approve the annual budget and submit it to the full Board for acceptance

This avails no effective solution in handling the pressing macroeconomic challenge. A greater probability is that more inflation shall creep into the overall economy from the supply aspect, both domestic and imported. Though they have changed a bit in in recent years, historically, inflation in Nepali economy has followed the inflation pattern in the Indian economy. The upsurge in the price tag to bring in goods and home supply constraints-both nonproduction and production-related related-will cause cost-push inflation. Note that Nepal imports 60 percent of total imports from India almost.

According to NRB, the low-cost price inflation increased by almost 19 percent in comparison to 10. This past year 1 percent. Moreover, the exporting firms, for his or her part, now will have less incentive to cut their costs as devaluation will make their products more competitive in the export sector. Hence, in the long-run, both costs and inflation increase. Inflation to arrive from the supply side will have long-term effects and not short-term just. This will also undermine investor confidence in Nepal’s economy and diminish the ability to attract foreign investment.

With reserves to invest in more than six months of imports, the central bank or investment company can easily sterilize strain on the Nepali rupee. Generally, the IMF recommends reserves that can fund three months of imports. Right now, we are better off staying the course, i.e. no change in the exchange rate. To address the current account deficit, a year which has deteriorated by around 245 percent in the first half of the fiscal, Nepal should try to “grow” itself out of this crisis rather than through currency manipulation.

For the short-term, one possible way is to make Nepal Tourism Year 2011 successful and generate considerable foreign exchange to defend against the pressure from surging imports and receding exports. Also, increasing quality and price competitiveness of Nepali goods can help increase exports. Meanwhile, increasing remittances inflow would provide a badly needed band aid to the economy.

The central bank or investment company has a very difficult task forward. It must rein in gossips about change in exchange rate, tame double-digit inflation, tighten liquidity in the real relieve and estate in productive areas, and effectively sterilize any pressure on the Nepali rupee. It has to take very pragmatic and cautious steps. In terms of NR’s exchange rate with IRs, staying the course is your best option for now.